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\nL\u1eddi Ng\u01b0\u1eddi D\u1ecbch: <\/strong>B\u00e0i n\u00e0y do Ken Moriyasu \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Nikkei Asia Review<\/em>, Nh\u1eadt, ng\u00e0y 18\/08\/2021. Ken Moriyasu l\u00e0 bi\u00ean t\u1eadp vi\u00ean ch\u00ednh v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb M\u1ef9 c\u1ee7a t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u00e0i th\u1ee9 hai trong lo\u1ea1t ba b\u00e0i v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 r\u00fat qu\u00e2n kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan th\u00e1ng 08\/2021 do M\u1eb7c L\u00fd ch\u1ecdn d\u1ecbch ho\u1eb7c vi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n
B\u00e0i 1: C\u00e1i nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb v\u00e0 v\u00e0o b\u00ean trong n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u2013 T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng Hoa K\u1ef3.<\/a> Ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft: Francis Fukuyama, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1ecbch: M\u1eb7c L\u00fd.<\/p>\n
B\u00e0i 2: C\u00e1i nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u2013 T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed1ng tro t\u00e0n Afghanistan ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Biden l\u1ed9 di\u1ec7n. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft: Ken Moriyasu, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1ecbch: M\u1eb7c L\u00fd.<\/p>\n
B\u00e0i 3: T\u1eeb S\u00e0i G\u00f2n \u0111\u1ebfn Kabul.<\/a> Ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft: M\u1eb7c L\u00fd.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
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Ken Moriyasu<\/em><\/p>\n
T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed1ng tro t\u00e0n Afghanistan ch\u1ee7 tuy\u1ebft Biden l\u1ed9 di\u1ec7n<\/h2>\n
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* S\u1ef1 thu h\u1eb9p tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m ch\u00fa \u00fd v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 g\u00e2y lo \u00e2u cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt.<\/em><\/p>\n
Ng\u00e0y Th\u1ee9 Hai, khi T\u1ed5ng Th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Joe Biden n\u00f3i v\u1edbi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u00f4ng ta kh\u00f4ng h\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfc vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan, \u00f4ng ta \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u00fd l\u1ebd cho vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 n\u00eau ra nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o cho ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
Kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia qua vi\u1ec7c tri\u1ec3n khai qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i. Kh\u00f4ng chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00f4 h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong m\u1ed9t m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m trong l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9. Kh\u00f4ng d\u00ednh l\u00edu s\u00e2u \u0111\u1eadm v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. V\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt, \u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c \u201cch\u1ed1ng kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1\u201d thay v\u00ec \u201cch\u1ed1ng b\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1n\u201d v\u00e0 s\u1ebd d\u00f9ng nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1eeb xa c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111e d\u1ecda tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t y\u1ebfu n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y kia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 Thuy\u1ebft Biden.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc do c\u1ef1u T\u1ed5ng Th\u1ed1ng George W. Bush \u0111\u1ec1 ra, khi \u00f4ng n\u00e0y ra l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u1ed5 qu\u00e2n v\u00e0o Afghanistan g\u1ea7n 20 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Bush \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201cb\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 t\u1eeb thi\u1ec7n\u201d truy\u1ec1n b\u00e1 t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, h\u1ea7u l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u0111e d\u1ecda cho ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1eddi cu\u1ed9c cho r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 m\u1edbi trong \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n \u1edf Afghanistan, s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a Washington theo d\u00f5i c\u1eb7n k\u1ebd.<\/p>\n
Nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb cao c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a RAND Corp. Jeffrey Hornung, c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean v\u1ec1 Nh\u1eadt, b\u1ea3o: \u201cN\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n so s\u00e1nh h\u00e0nh ph\u00e1p Bush v\u00e0 Biden, c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia, truy\u1ec1n b\u00e1 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eefng \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra\u201d. Hornung n\u00f3i: \u201cM\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Biden c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia, nh\u01b0ng Biden kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i ra tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 g\u00ec.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trung Qu\u1ed1c nhanh ch\u00f3ng khai th\u00e1c nh\u1eefng h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i Afghanistan cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Ho\u00e0n C\u1ea7u Th\u1eddi B\u00e1o, t\u1edd b\u00e1o di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u00f3 li\u00ean h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi t\u1edd Nh\u00e2n D\u00e2n Nh\u1eadt b\u00e1o, c\u01a1 quan ng\u00f4n lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng S\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft trong b\u00e0i x\u00e3 lu\u1eadn l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c Washington b\u1ecf r\u01a1i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Kabul n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan. B\u00e0i x\u00e3 lu\u1eadn vi\u1ebft: \u201dM\u1ed9t khi chi\u1ebfn tranh Hai B\u1edd x\u1ea3y ra, khi \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea3o \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1eb1ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh, n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 c\u1ea7n quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m r\u1ea5t cao, cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi \u1edf Afghanistan, Syria v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd mu\u1ed1n can thi\u1ec7p.\u201d<\/p>\n
Michal Green ph\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch cao c\u1ea5p \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edfng ban Nh\u1eadt v\u1ee5 t\u1ea1i Trung T\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf v\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c (CSIS, Washington DC), \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ecdi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Afghanistan l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t sai l\u1ea7m t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c sai l\u1ea7m n\u00e0y \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00f2ng t\u1ef1 tin c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh.\u201d Nh\u01b0ng Green n\u00f3i: \u201dT\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 vi\u1ec7c d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn M\u1ef9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cho li\u00ean minh M\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 M\u1ef9-H\u00e0n. T\u00f4i c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f4 l\u1eadp. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u00f4 h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra khi ch\u00fang ta can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, c\u00f2n nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cho vi\u1ec7c tham gia c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u00ec s\u1ebd n\u00f3i \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u x\u1ea3y ra khi ch\u00fang ta l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc. V\u1eady coi nh\u01b0 hai phe th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn b\u1ea5t ph\u00e2n th\u1eafng b\u1ea1i.\u201d<\/p>\n
M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi trong \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh s\u1ebd l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan, khi n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh trong m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
Hornung ghi nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 di\u1ec5n v\u0103n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a Biden \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m l\u00ean vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u00d4ng vi\u1ebft: \u201cN\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea1nh tranh si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i th\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fac n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 h\u1ea1 c\u1edd xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 n\u00f3i, \u2018Kh\u00f4ng, anh c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a ng\u00e1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00f4i.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Mike Mochizuchi, gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 chuy\u00ean ng\u00e0nh Quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt t\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1eddng Quan H\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf Elliott, \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc George Washington, n\u00f3i: \u201dC\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 xi\u1ec3n d\u01b0\u01a1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00e0i Loan, n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7.\u201d \u00d4ng c\u0169ng n\u00f3i: \u201dM\u1ed9t b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd mu\u1ed1n gi\u1eef g\u00ecn th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u1eb1m \u1edf ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.\u201d<\/p>\n
V\u1edbi Nh\u1eadt khi qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o li\u00ean minh an ninh v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a h\u01a1n 50,000 qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u201cl\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, n\u1ebfu Nh\u1eadt b\u1ecb t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
Tom Shugart, th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean cao c\u1ea5p b\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian t\u1ea1i Trung T\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u M\u1ed9t N\u1ec1n An Ninh M\u1edbi c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean v\u1ec1 \u0111e d\u1ecda qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u0169ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i \u00fd ki\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c ng\u0103n ng\u1eeba Taliban ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 Afghanistan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 d\u1ea5u cho h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan. \u00d4ng n\u00f3i:\u201d S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp n\u00ean v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch H\u00f2a B\u00ecnh M\u1ef9 (Pax Americana). M\u1ed9t khi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Li\u00ean M\u1ef9 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n n\u1eefa ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec n\u00fai cao \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tuy nhi\u00ean Shugart c\u0169ng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 nguy c\u01a1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan.\u201d Theo Shugart, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ee9ng sau \u0110\u00e0i Loan, n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd tin t\u01b0\u1edfng sai l\u1ea7m khi d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o quan s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi Afghanistan. \u00d4ng n\u00f3i: \u201dB\u00e2y gi\u1edd n\u1ebfu \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 v\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e1nh tr\u1ea3, \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c. Nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00fang ta quan s\u00e1t ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Afghanistan \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ee1. N\u00f3i ng\u1eafn g\u1ecdn, t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ea5y lo l\u1eafng h\u01a1n, khi t\u00f4i th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Afghanistan tr\u00ean c\u0103n b\u1ea3n s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u1ed5 s\u00fang v\u00e0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn b\u1ecb Taliban mua \u0111\u1ee9t.\u201d<\/p>\n
Gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean Simon Frankel Pratt c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Bristol ghi nh\u1eadn:\u201d Vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n h\u1eb9p h\u01a1n vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng b\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1n nhi\u1ec1u.\u201d \u00d4ng n\u00f3i: \u201dTh\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c phi\u00eau l\u01b0u qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia, \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, \u00edt ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n. Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111ang tri\u1ec3n khai \u1edf Phi Ch\u00e2u, n\u01a1i n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u00edt tham gia tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng an ninh b\u1ea3n x\u1ee9.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00fat r\u01b0\u1ee1i sau khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u bu\u1ed5i n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n h\u00f4m Th\u1ee9 Hai, Biden tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1: \u201dL\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta t\u1ea1i Afghanistan ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y: ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ea5t M\u1ef9.\u201d<\/p>\n
Th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Madiha Afzal c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Brookings n\u00f3i: \u201dNh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ng\u01b0\u1eddi Afghanistan hi\u1ec3u trong bao nhi\u00eau n\u0103m nay.\u201d B\u00e0 c\u0169ng n\u00f3i:\u201d \u0110i\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Afghanistan ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i Afghanistan ch\u1ec9 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u00e0o ch\u1ed1ng kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1, b\u1edfi v\u00ec trong th\u1eddi gian hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n \u1edf \u0111\u00f3, n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap ng\u01b0\u1eddi Afghanistan x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf, tuy vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 nguy\u00ean th\u1ee7y hay \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u00ednh to\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. V\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Afghanistan, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u1edbi th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 tr\u1ebb v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb, v\u1ed1n h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf m\u1edbi n\u00e0y, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t ra \u0111i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp thu ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Taliban l\u00e0m cho h\u1ecd c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb b\u1ecf r\u01a1i, v\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n b\u1ed9i l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u l\u00e0m h\u1ecd tin t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd khi M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y.\u201d<\/p>\n
N\u0103m 1996, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00e2n b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 William Kristol v\u00e0 Robert Kagan \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Foreign Affairs l\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 sau Chi\u1ebfn Tranh l\u1ea1nh n\u00ean l\u00e0 b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 t\u1eeb thi\u1ec7n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong \u0111\u00f3 n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c xi\u1ec3n d\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ra n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, nh\u01b0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng t\u1ef1 do c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 n\u00e0y c\u0169ng n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u1ed1i th\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 n\u00ean l\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 \u01b0u vi\u1ec7t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, \u201cb\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gia t\u0103ng an ninh n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 b\u1ea1n b\u00e8, th\u0103ng ti\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Bush. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 v\u1edbi hai cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n
M\u1eb7c L\u00fd chuy\u1ec3n ng\u1eef<\/p>\n
(18\/08\/2021)<\/em><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Tham kh\u1ea3o<\/strong><\/p>\n
[1] Ken Moriyasu, \u201cFrom the ashes of Afghanistan, a ‘Biden Doctrine’ emerges\u201c, Nikkei Asia, Aug 2021<\/p>\n